To Celebrate the 50th Earth Day – Biodiversity Crisis, Anthropogenic Causes and 6th Mass Extinction Event

To Celebrate the 50^th Earth Day – Biodiversity Crisis, Anthropogenic Causes and 6^th Mass Extinction Event

Mohammed Ashraf

Gaylord Nelson who pioneered the Earth Day in April 22, 1970

April 22 is Earth Day. It was the brainchild of senator Gaylord Nelson from Wisconsin who was inspired by Rachel’s Carson’s pioneering and most influential work ‘The Silent Spring’ first published in 1962. Nelson in early 1970s was disheartened by the ongoing ecological and social destructions that were brought upon my multi trillion corporations across the United States. He witnessed and ravages the massive oil spilled in Santa Barbra, California in January 1969. Nelson pursued congressmen and other high level political leaders and recruited Dennis Hayes and came up with an idea of picking April 22 as weekday which falls between Spring break and final exam for college students in the United States. The notion behind is to infuse and ignite large scale student driven environmental movement across the United States and in April 22, 1970, twenty million Americans (10% of the total population back then) rolled up their sleeves and hit the road to demonstrate large scale protests against 150 years of industrial revolution that become the social and ecological curse across the globe. Earth Day is monumental achievement, not only for the United States but for all other countries of the world : Thanks to Senator Nelson.

Rachel Carson who pioneered the environmental thinking among public by writing influential book ‘The Silent Spring’ in 1962

The entire gamut of ecological, social and environmental movements and academic disciplines that now came to exist because of these two groundbreaking and most influential American individuals : 1. Ms. Rachel Carson 2. Senator Gaylord Nelson. Fifty years has gone past, significant social and economic developments have taken place and earth is now at the crossroad between human centric destructive development and ecological and biosphere crisis that now leading the earth to 6^th Mass Extinction Event. Today we celebrate 50^th Anniversary of Earth Day and take a look at some of the key ecological and biological facets and conservation implications across tropical ecoregions.

Image Courtesy : Gurudeep Ramakrishna

Earth is roughly five billions years. A very deep time in cosmic time frame. Generally human existence on earth is fraction of few seconds considering the universe, our galaxy and the birth of our solar system. Earth is the only planet in our solar system that came to bring life due to its exact location relative to sun, our moon and its 23 degree tilt from its orbital axis. It’s unique and humans are fortunate to find a place in this planet. There is no planet in our solar system where life exists; certainly not multi cellular organism like ourselves. Out of millions of other solar systems in our Milky Way galaxy, earth-like planet certainly exist and may be there is distinct possibility that advance species (probably more advance than humans) inhabit these exoplanets but they are too far for human to travel and to live there. The distance we are talking about is light years which simply means the distance the light travel in one year. Even one light year is too far and often takes up all the digits of your calculator. Numerically it looks like this : = (186282 Miles X 60 Seconds X 60 Minutes X 24 Hours X 365 Days). If you multiply all these you will get the 1 light-year. It’s a large number certainly in distance in miles. Exoplants are located hundreds and thousands of light years from earth. Humans’ only living planet is Earth because with current technology there is no future or long term possibility certainly not within the next 1000 years or so for humans to even reach to half light year let alone landing in our nearest solar system Proxima Centuary located little over four light-years from earth. Why I am telling all these and how these relate to 50^th Anniversary of Earth Day? The rationale behind this is simple. Humans must come to realize this is the only planet they have for their survival and if they wish to stay here for another 1 billion years when sun will die and its flares will disintegrate the earth and other planets (in fact you can see some of the other stars are dying when you gaze night sky) like a small crystal jar. It is important for human species to understand that short term pleasure, profit and existing human centric life style (some folks call it death style) governed by greed, shaky moral and ethical dilemma, competitions and running a race where the track is nothing but destination to hell will only lead humans to extinction and that extinction is actually very much right at our front door. This is we call 6^th extinction event, the last one was of course 65 millions years ago when Dinosaurs died out and created evolutionary niche for humans to evolve. If humans fail to see earth as part of cosmic system and grasp the broader picture of embracing earth from astronomical time dimensions chances are very likely humans will face extinction within the next 1000 years which again is nothing but fraction of seconds given the earth’s potential to stay in its orbit for one billion years from now. Humans have lot to loose, Earth, well, that is different kettle of fish!

Civet facing human persecution across tropics

Let’s take a brief look how many species are there and how humans are driving species to extinction. Globally there are little over 2.13 million species that have so far been cataloged. This number does not mean this is the total number of species that exist in our planet. Probability estimation suggests between 4 to 50 million species exist on earth and more tangible estimate ballpark it to 16 million species. Nevertheless, out of two million or so species, only 3% are in fact vertebrates (Fishes, Mammals, Amphibians, Reptiles and Birds) including humans of course. The remaining 97% notably comprises insects and plants. The striking chord here is extinction will ensure vertebrates disappear in the face of human assaults to earth.

If you look back cosmic cataclysm even back in the Dinosaurs era, insects survived and so do many other invertebrates. They will continue to stay well beyond mass 6^th extinction event that looms over the face of the earth due to anthropogenic interferences. That makes insects more better survivor than humans in cosmic time scale. The ecological fabric on the other hand deeply maintained by large keystone vertebrates that often sits at the top of the food chain. The concept of keystone species underlies that other species survival often determines by maintaining healthy crop of keystone mega vertebrates or species that play as an indicator for the ecosystems. Tigers, wolves, falcons, whales, frogs, pythons and other charismatic and enigmatic species are often the heartbeat of ecosystems. Their numbers are in steep decline and among all of the vertebrates, amphibians (mainly frogs and toads) are most endangered. Almost one third (33%) of all amphibians that are discovered so far, are facing extinction crisis as in endangered or critically endangered (IUCN Data), comparing to less than 20% all all mammals, across the tropical and neotropical belt. Amphibians play massive role both as keystone vertebrate and indicator species and healthy population of frogs simply translates to healthy ecosystems. Agricultural conversion, industrial pesticides, human population encroachments, mono culture cash crop plantations (rubber, palm, teak, coffee etc), aquaculture (shrimp farms decimating almost all the mangrove ecosystems across the hemisphere), wildlife trade, greenhouse gas emissions and many other factors are attributed to earth’s biodiversity loss and species extinction which are driving the planet one step close to 6^th mass extinction event as we speak.

Help Save Tiger in the Wild. Image Courtesy: World Wildlife Fund, USA

I conclude this essay with few positive notes. 50 years of environmental and ecological movements since the first inception of Earth Day in the United State in 1970, policies and governance to bring about social and ecological justice are being taking place. In fact majority of the nations adopted conservation measures and action programs following the US Endangered Species Act 1973, three years after the birth of Earth Day! The process is slow and cumbersome although some good work has been done with mixed result. For example, over the last 50 years, iconic tiger numbers from hundred thousands tiger across South and South East Asia plummeted to less than few thousand tigers. With historical population so high to now merely 4000 species left in the wild led significant conservation action programs to revive wild tiger population across the tropical belt. Science driven cutting edge technologies like radio telemetry study, scat sampling, mitochondrial DNA analysis, remote sensing and geographic information science based spatial mapping, camera trapping to estimate tiger population under conceptual statistical framework have led tigers and other wild cats recovery across the globe. Some part of India and Nepal, the good news of tiger numbers are slowly recovering is sense of joy and pride for many of the tireless and often unpaid research ecologists and wildlife biologists who almost dedicated their entire life to help safeguard keystone vertebrates hence to ensure protecting earth’s remaining fragile but precious ecosystems. The latest footage from Panthera, one of the most prestigious and influential wild cat research organization is looking back how it has been for the past 50 years for wild cats conservation by coinciding the 5^th anniversary of Earth Day! I leave you to watch that little video clip.

Solving Biodiversity Crisis : Highlighting Math & Computer Programming at Kindergarten Schools

Solving Biodiversity Crisis : Highlighting Math & Computer Programming at Kindergarten Schools

Mohammed Ashraf

The biological diversity of our planet are in deep crisis. The rate of extinction is overwhelming among all taxa purely due to human perturbation and argument is marshaled that earth has already undergoing 6^th Mass Extinction Event. The last extinction event was of course 65 million years ago when dinosaurs gone extinct due to cosmic cataclysm and long before mammalian evolution. In spite of the fact that the probability of cosmic catastrophe for example super-size meteor from earth’s nearest asteroid belt ends up hitting our planet is relatively low but it does occur roughly of two million years interval. Therefore it is safe to say, extinction event will occur and it will eliminate human species and will give rise to new species over millions of years evolutionary time. The preponderance of humans’ interference on earth’s bio-geo-chemical cycles, ecosystems and biological diversity make humans more vulnerable to extinction and surely out pace any cosmic catastrophes that ever took place in millions of years of earth’s evolutionary timeline. The implication of anthropogenic negative impacts give rise to biodiversity and ecosystem conservation across tropical and semi tropical belts where species richness and diversity are highest. The science that govern the ecosystem conservation and management is deeply rooted into few hundred years of solid principles of ecology per se but both conservation biology and ecology remain crisis disciplines. For example, charismatic large vertebrates that are often served as flagship umbrella species across the tropics are seriously endangered due to human centric negative actions in spite of large scale conservation projects to revive their dwindling population size over the last half century. The reason for this mismatch between theoretical ecology and its practical implementations to help conserve species – the fundamental ecological unit of any ecosystem – partly relates to lack of mathematical underpinnings. Undoubtedly modern and quality wildlife ecologists recognize the importance of developing cutting edge mathematical algorithm that can solve many of the ecosystem and species diversity problems, it is nonetheless, beyond penetration for semi-educated average laymen who are in charge of conservation policy development or in political leverage to enforce species protection by and by. Ultimately the hodgepodge of thick bureaucracy coupled with weak administrative and political leverage makes a clear cut escape from the overall realm of wildlife science therefore leaving wildlife ecology and conservation as standalone ‘high-class’ obsession to protect biodiversity in the face of malnourished economy, social injustice, burgeoning human population, capitalism hence exploitation and of course hard core poverty and environmental degradation across tropical and neotropical belts. To reverse the trend, bottom-up approach but more importantly radical and revolutionary approach is needed. The kind of approach that integrates mathematics as fundamental language to convey messages across scientific and non scientific arena. This can only be achieved with wide scale integration of mathematics in kindergarten and elementary schools. The kind of mathematics that are not ramshackle hence bounded by dusty curriculum. For example, almost all kindergarten schools in ecologically rich but economically poor nations teaches math in old-fashioned way where numerical solutions of mathematical problems are either solved through using tedious calculator or manually by hand. It is however necessary to learn how to write steps to solve arithmetic and algebraic problems by hand but it is more important to embrace computer programming to write codes that can solve problems. This can out run old fashioned way of doing math by using scientific calculator per se but more so it introduce programming skills to students at very early stage. Almost all ecological and environmental problems are deeply entrenched into devising cutting edge mathematical models and simulation. These can only be performed by utilizing the power of computer programs. In other words the more efficiently one can write programming codes, the better his chance to solve complex problems. Therefore it is at paramount importance to introduce computer programming to students at very early stage of their education. The benefits are enormous and it certainly brings the concept of ‘modern problem solving approaches’ and put the students at the center stage of scientific arguments and consensus. For example, if I ought to know the kill rate that is how many deer an individual tiger can kill per year, I would need to develop a mathematical algorithm after collecting my field data on deer kill by tigers. This at a glance may daunting for kindergarten teachers to teach to their students but it is in fact easier than plotting a function by using scientific calculator. The conservation implication of numerically understand the kill rate is simple. It can enable us to devise management strategy for deer stock knowing how many deers an individual tiger needs per year for survival, breed and to successfully raise its cubs. The kill-rate algorithm can enable me to project future trend in terms of deer population size versus tiger numbers, ecosystem health, survival and mortality rate of both tiger and deer and so on : all critically important to answer in the face of rapid extinction of carnivores across tropical ecosystems. If students and I meant all students are taught math by utilizing the power of 21^st century modern approach that is writing codes, chance are high we will end up having a generation pool who will chop off the thick bureaucracy, assimilate science and see the wildlife ecology from the lens of mathematical algorithms. The lectures, my first lecture on R and Maxima programming below will introduce the advantages of writing codes and to solve problems. If students watch the video and then gets motivated to write their own codes, this blog I just typed has achieved its objective. Enjoy coding folks.

Towards Sustainable Ecological Future!

Ashraf

Lecture on R Programming to Solve Mathematical Problems :

Lecture on Maxima Programming to Solve Mathematical Problems :

Doubling the Tiger Numbers to Meet Tx2 Goal by Year 2022 : GIS Based Delineation to Explore the Fundamental Fallacies

Doubling the Tiger Numbers to Meet Tx2 Goal by Year 2022 : GIS Based Delineation to Explore the Fundamental Fallacies

Mohammed Ashraf

Wild tiger marking its home range

Wild tigers (Panthera tigris) are charismatic mega-carnivore in felid guild that serve as flagship keystone species in tropical and semi tropical ecosystems across South and South East Asia. Historically tiger populations range many countries covering as far as Turkey, Uzbekistan and Iran in western Asia to Singapore, Korea, Philippines and most of Southern China in East Asia (see figure 1). Empirical and anecdotal evidence suggest there were over hundred thousands tigers that roam free across broad geographic landscape in the Palearctic and Indo Malaya biogeographic realms over the past hundred years. Sadly, tiger numbers shrank dramatically and 96% of the tigers disappear due to various anthropogenic negative impacts across their once contiguous and broad ecological landscape of Asia. There are probably less than 3800 tigers left in the wild and recent estimate suggests that approximately hundred tigers get killed by poachers every year. Tigers now live in an increasingly human- dominated insularized and fragmented landscape in handful of nations in South and South East Asia and Russian Far East. Habitat encroachment by humans, habitat degradation or agricultural conversion/expansion and habitat fragmentation are some of the leading drivers that pushed tigers into brink of extinction. To reverse these negative trends and to halt tiger population decline, ecoregional based preservation, restoration and habitat connectivity in conjunction with identifying key conservation areas where breeding tiger populations pose high probability of long term survival in heavily fragmented Tiger Conservation Landscapes (TCL) across Indo Malayan ecoregion should be placed at top conservation priority for tiger range nations across tropical and semi tropical belt.

Figure 1 : Historical tiger range across Palearctic ecoregion. GIS Data : World Wildlife Fund, USA

Keystone mega vertebrates for example Mountain Lion (Puma concolor) in North America, Jaguar (Panthera onca) in South America, Lion (Panthera leo) in Africa and Tiger (Panthera tigris) in subcontinent Asia and Russian Far East are classic landscape predator which helps maintaining the overall biodiversity and ecological structure, composition and functions of the ecosystems and biomes in which they inhabit. Recent study on Mountain Lion (aka Cougar, Puma ) population by Mark Elbroch in Greater Yellowstone National Park in United States revealed astonishingly high species diversity in entolomogical, ornithological and mammalogical fronts. Elbroch’s study points out where keystone apex carnivore lives and hunt, their kills alone attract large numbers and high diversity of invertebrates and other vertebrates including birds and mammals in kill sites. Large carnivores often hunt large herbivores often weigh ten time more than their own body weight. Elbroch and his research team found out that Mountain Lion that kills 700 pounds Elk (aka Wapiti) leaves large proportion of the carrion (dead meat) which then become home to significantly high diversity of invertebrates notably beetles, slugs, insects and other entomologically important species. Rotting carcasses attract other carnivores including bears, foxes and wolves at the kill sites. The way Mountain Lion shapes up the ecosystem in North America, it is by some carnivore ecologists, refer to as true ecosystem engineer that help promotes high diversity of species thereby contributing to maintenance and sustainability of the ecological services, functions and significant diversity. Elbroch’s finding is valid for other obligate carnivores in Felid guild for example Jaguars and Tigers. Tigers in tropical and semi tropical Asia often hunts large ungulate (hoofed mammal). For example, in India, tiger prefers to hunt down the largest bovine : The wild Gaur (Bos gaurus). Weigh over 1000 kg, more than three times the weight of Bengal tiger, it is the largest extant (not extinct yet) ungulate in Indo Malayan ecosystems. Although, data on tiger kills focusing large to medium sized ungulates are sporadic and often scarce, it is nonetheless inferred that large kills like Gaur will attracts significantly higher number of other subordinate carnivores, other mammals and birds at the tiger’s kill sites. Therefore, healthy tiger population actively hunting down large ungulates in tropical ecosystems in Asia is true indication of the healthy ecosystems as they shape up the overall structure, diversity, compositions and functions of the ecosystems. It is not surprising that tiger serves as flagship umbrella species in India and other South Asian nations to bring about overall biodiversity conservation. On the other hand, declining population of tigers and the sorry-state-of-this-affairs apparent in tiger range nations are true indication of incremental damage and loss of intact and pristine ecosystems. Elbroch’s study on Mountain Lion kills is by no means limit only to Cougar, in fact this landmark study and its findings now enable us to give a true name to apex carnivores like Puma and Tigers as classic landscape ecosystem engineer.

In spite of significant ecological (and economic and societal) contributions by tigers, tiger numbers are declining exponentially with severe consequences leading to ecosystem malfunctioning and total breakdown of food-chain where tigers act as top predator. Recognizing the steep and dramatic decline of tiger population across Indo Malayan ecoregion, Global Tiger Recovery Program (GTRP) – the most ambitious and high-level international conservation initiative ever undertaken for single-species recovery in Asia – was launched in year 2010. GTRP was strongly supported and multilaterally embraced by some of the most prestigious international conservation organizations for example IUCN, WWF, Wildlife Conservation Society (WCS) and Smithsonian Institution. The fundamental goal of the GTRP is rooted into doubling the tiger numbers for the next 12 years from year 2010 right till year 2022 by coinciding with the Chinese New Year of the Tiger. The project was fashionably named as Tx2 or TX2 which arithmetically translates to Tiger times 2 hence doubling the tiger population size. In year 2010 when GTRP was launched in the form of St. Petersburg Declaration which then agreed by all 13 tiger range nations along with international conservation groups, tiger numbers were estimated to 3200 across Indo Malayan and Russian Far East ecoregions. Six years later in year 2016, tiger numbers were estimated to 3890 – a 21% increase since GTRP was launched. Doubling the tiger numbers from 3200 to 6400 by year 2022 is surely challenging and ambitious goal considering to the fact that nine years have gone past since the St. Petersburg Declaration and current estimation of tiger population across its range nations is far from reaching Tx2 target. The grim reality is tiger numbers are face with serious anthropogenic threats of various fronts and majority of the tiger nations are in fact loosing their tigers. For example Myanmar (former Burma), Cambodia and Vietnam have not witnessed any breeding population size since 2008. Hence, it can be inferred that these nations have already lost the species or tigers are simply functionally extinct due to the fact that no breeding tigers have been detected for the past 11 years. Countries like China, Thailand, Laos and part of India are facing similar problem where either breeding population has not been detected or population size become too insularized and small that tigers’ chances for long term survival in that particular ecosystem is none therefore the species may be functionally extinct.

Figure 2 : Fragmented Tiger Conservation Landscapes in Indo Malayan Ecoregion as reflected in Green overlay against the historic range of tigers in Asia. GIS Data : World Wildlife Fund (WWF) USA

Politically motivated high level inter-ministerial gathering to help rescue dwindling wild tigers of Asia certainly captured large scale international media coverage focusing GTRP in St. Petersburg in 2010. Tx2 was launched to double the tiger numbers by year 2022, millions of dollars were committed by international conservation groups and donor organizations from across the hemisphere and significantly remarkable numbers of groundbreaking ecological studies have been carried out to understand the demographic parameters and distribution patterns of tigers. Wild tigers entered into the realm of glossy publications and became ‘Paper Tiger’ whilst ‘Wild Tigers’ continue to disappear with a rate of 100 tigers a year due to anthropogenic insults across its range nations. ‘Paper Tigers’ were presented in international symposiums, workshops and conferences over and over to captivate the political, social and scientific momentums prior to and after St. Petersburg Declaration with little or no actual implementations of conservation action plans on the ground to increase tiger population. In spite of all these, large bodies of academic research papers focusing tigers already exist and the booming numbers of conservation organizations (mainly in the west) along with international campaign and media coverage investing on bringing the iconic tigers from near extinction crises are simply an ironic flip side of the same coin against the backdrop of habitat destruction, conversion of virgin tropical tiger ecosystems to monoculture cash crop to meet high demand for oil palm, aquaculture shrimp farms, rubber and teak plantation for the high market demands for western culture.

Figure 2 : GIS based image of heavily fragmented tiger conservation landscapes (TCL) against the background of historical tiger range. GIS Data: Global Forest Watch, World Wildlife Fund and IUCN

Despite the fact 70 million hectares of land that is earmarked as potential Tiger Conservation Landscape (TCL) still exist and three years left to reach Tx2 target by 2022, global tiger population size has not markedly increased. Chances are high that Tx2 target will not be achieved given the timeline therefore question arises with regards to Tx2 in terms of its planning, efficacy, statistical rigor and pragmatic implementation. 70 million hectares of TCL translates to total of 76 tiger conservation landscapes (see figure 2).

Figure 3 : GIS image : Red areas represent tiger presence and yellow areas comprise tiger’s functionally extinct status over the last 10 year. GIS Data : WWF USA, IUCN

These fragmented ecosystems are the last remaining habitats for tigers and other endangered faunas and floras. St. Petersburg Declaration on doubling the tiger numbers hence Tx2 was based on these TCL on figure 2 and out of 76 TCL, 29 of them or 38% of them were further earmarked as high priority TCL for meeting Tx2 target. GIS data on where tigers inhabit in terms of breeding population size and where tigers are functionally extinct that is no tigers were detected since 2008 already exist. Figure 3 delineates the TCLs where tigers are present (red in the map) and where tigers are functionally extinct (yellow in the map) in Indo Malayan ecoregion.

Figure 4 : GIS overlay delineates large swaths of Tx2 areas (blue in the map) where tigers have already functionally extinct hence impossible to double the tiger numbers in these TCLs reflected as blue by year 2022. GIS Data Courtesy : WWF USA and IUCN

Further analysis of GIS data (see figure 4 : All the blue areas are TCLs selected for meeting Tx2 target) on TCL earmarked as Tx2 under GTRP – St. Petersburg Declaration reveals majority of the TCLs to meet the Tx2 target to double the tiger numbers are in fact empty forest when it comes to tiger presence. For example, large swath of ecoregional TCLs straddling the border between Myanmar, Thailand, Cambodia, Vietnam and Laos were selected for doubling the tiger numbers when data reveals that these areas have already lost tigers or tigers are functionally extinct (refer to figure 3) due to small and insularized population size with no presence of breeding females. Therefore it is not surprising that Tx2 target will not be met by year 2022 and the wild tiger will remain as paper tiger in the Chinese Year of the Tiger. After all how can tiger numbers be increased let alone doubling it when no tigers have been detected in majority of the tiger conservation landscape (TCL) that are chosen as Tx2 landscape. One can marshal an argument that so called ambitious Tx2 project initiated with weak foundation where prioritizing key tiger conservation landscapes were left out. On the contrary, pockets of fragmented ecosystems under TCLs with tiger presence still exist (see figure 3 : Red in the map) in southern and central India and in Indonesian island Sumatra. Tx2 failed to select these areas as priority TCLs to increase tiger numbers. Had these areas been earmarked as Tx2 landscape, paper tigers could have stood the chance to escape from conference rooms to become true wild tigers to roam free in Asia. Tiger are true landscape carnivore and it requires large areas (often as large as 100 sq km) for hunting, roaming, breeding and establishing its home range. It poses good reproductive capacity and given adequate prey base and quality habitat, its population can bounce back relatively quick. GIS data reveals large tract of fragmented tiger ecosystems exist in India and Sumatra where tiger presence is confirmed. Connecting these isolated and fragmented ecosystems by creating ecological corridors (aka wildlife corridors) to connect disjunct population for gene flow and confirmed breeding purpose hence managing the source-sink meta population structure of tiger conservation landscape against the backdrop of human-induced negative impacts should be at the top conservation priority for Tx2 to reasonably achieve part of its goal to double the tiger numbers by year 2022.

To raise a cub, mother tiger requires 3500 kg of meat per year. It translates to roughly hundred deer a year for one adult female tiger with cubs.

Tigers are breathtaking high profile landscape carnivore that provokes sheer sense of joy and excitement whenever and wherever one can see them. From historical hundred thousand population to mere 3800 within the last 100 years is true testimony to the fact that species long term survival rate is slim unless ecologically valid science bound conservation action plans are at place in an effective timeline. St. Petersburg Declaration to revive tigers from brink of extinction was popularized and spot-lighted over the last nine years yet tiger numbers continue to decline with limited positive impact of to reach Tx2 target to double the tiger numbers by year 2022. In the face of current anthropogenic impacts that looms over almost all tiger conservation landscapes (TCL), prioritizing the conservation action plans that incorporate GIS based ecological data on tiger presence and absence and to focus on creating ecological corridors to connects fragmented tiger landscapes across Indo Malayan ecoregion are top priorities to meet at least the partial target of Tx2 to double the tiger numbers by year 2022. Conservation focus should be on small isolated pockets of tiger conservation landscapes where tigers’ presence is fully confirmed as oppose to large swath of areas where tiger have not been detected for the past five years. Tx2 goal can only be achieved if it shifts its priority from focusing on areas where tigers have not been sighted for over the past 5 years to areas where tiger presence is 100% confirmed for example southern and central Indian fragmented tiger conservation landscape and Sumatran rainforest.

Global Tiger Day : July 29, 2019 : Hope and Inspiration to Bring Back Tigers from Extinction Crisis!

Global Tiger Day : July 29, 2019 : Hope and Inspiration to Bring Back Tigers from Extinction Crisis!

Mohammed Ashraf

Bengal Tiger in Tall Grassland Ecosystem in South Asian Tiger Landscape, image Courtesy: World Wildlife Fund, USA

29^th of July is Global Tiger Day also known as International Tiger Day. We see tigers in various commercial and business facets, from fashion motif to our cereal box. I even remember, Exxon the multinational oil giant once televised ad with a slogan ‘Tiger on your tank”! The sheer power and magnificence of tigers captured corporate attention for decades if not century and tiger symbols or brands got embedded into our modern social and cultural fabric.

Help Save Tiger in the Wild. Image Courtesy: World Wildlife Fund, USA

Despite so much admiration and affection, tigers in the wild are facing global extinction crisis in sheer magnitude. To put this into perspective, as early as 1900, there were over 100,000 tigers used to roam all over Asia, by the turn of century, 95% of the tiger population has disappeared from the wild. Three sub species of tigers (Caspian tiger, Bali tiger, and Javan tiger) have completely gone extinct : Thanks to human persecution across tiger range countries. Shockingly there are only 3900 tigers left in the wild with disproportionate population size across 13 tiger range countries. Among 13 countries, few of the nations like Cambodia, Vietnam and China has population size small enough to class as almost extinct. This is because, once the population size become too small then genetically it is not possible to reverse the declining trend to bring back the species from extinction crisis. This small population size is often known as effective population size which is always smaller than real population size. In other words effective population size means genetically, species are not viable to interbreed hence extinct in the wild.

Tiger Cub : A Hope and Inspiration for Future Generation. Image Courtesy : World Wildlife Fund, USA, Tx2 means Doubling Tiger Number by year 2022.

At the moment, India has the largest tiger population over 2000 tigers in the wild, but that is not surprising because India is the largest landmass among all tiger range countries. Nepal, Bangladesh, Bhutan has small population but governments of these nations are trying to stabilize if not increase the tiger numbers. Russian far east, in an area near Amur river, has roughly 400 tigers. There are tigers in Sumatra and population is declining as we speak.

Tiger numbers at a glance. Image Courtesy: World Wildlife Fund, USA

Hence, the situation for tiger is bleak and saddening. The way, tiger numbers are declining, the species may not survive in the wild next century. I do not like to see that happens and I am sure many of us who grew up with sheer respect and admiration for wild cats, would feel the same. Global tiger day provide us an opportunity to revitalize our spirit to do something, anything to help save tigers in the wild. Individually, we may not have much power, but collectively and globally, we have the power to help conserve tigers in the wild, to restore their forest ecosystem, through education outreach, cultural and social festivals, posters and banners, web pages and blogs and many other ways. To mark the 9^th Global Tiger Day, Species Ecology will make an endeavor to do what it can do to help raise awareness and public outreach and conservation education surrounding tigers. I personally plan on writing up essays focusing general information about tigers to scientific studies that have been conducted to help protect this charismatic mega vertebrate that evoke so much of excitement and enlightenment among us. In spite of the fact, tigers are essentially Asian species, I personally feel it is a species we can class it as Global Mega Fauna due to its popularity that does not limit any geo-political boundary. For example, Yosemite National Park in California (first national park in the world), Amazon basin in Brazil and other South America States, Himalaya and its surrounding tiger habitats in Nepal and other South Asian States, Tazmahal in India and Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem (the largest contiguous single tract mangrove forest that harbor wild Bengal tigers in the world) in Bangladesh and Indian part pose no social and or geo political boundaries. These are global ecological assets just like tigers, mountain lion, jaguars and snow leopard as an example. To conclude, I am going to provide you with few basic statistics on how helping to save tigers benefits humans across the globe. This statistics equally apply to any other keystone umbrella species as indicated above.

Bengal Tigers, Image Courtesy: World Wildlife Fund, USA

Tiger landscapes encompass 9 major water sheds in Asia that provide fresh water supply and potable clean drinking water for over 8 million people in Asia.

103 million dollars a year directly generated from tiger tourism in one national park in India. Makes you wonder why live tigers are valuable to society and economy than dead one.

Bengal Tiger in Indian National Park. Image Courtesy : World Wildlife Fund, USA

Large tract of forest protected for tigers host immense biodiversity, birds, mammals, reptiles, fishes, mollusks, invertebrates and trees. Tigers are apex carnivore that sit at the top of the food chain in forest ecosystem. It is a keystone umbrella species meaning helping to conserve tigers not only help tigers and humans but also safeguard suits of biological and ecological diversity that depends on tigers survival. You save tigers, you saving the forest ecosystem in which we humans are intricately related for our own survival.

Finally, forest protected for tigers in Amur region in Russian Far East, can absorb 130,000 tonnes of carbon a year. It works out carbon emission from 25,0000 cars a year. Helping to save tigers and its ecosystems will significantly help curb human induced carbon emission : the main culprit for global warming hence climate change.

49th Earth Day : Commemorating Twelve Most Influential Figures

Today, April 22, 2019, is Earth Day! To mark the 49^th anniversary of this most historically groundbreaking and monumental day, Species Ecology pulled together twelve most influential figures that helped us to shape and hone our ecological and conservation skills against the backdrop of anthropocentric persecution and capitalistic exploitation of our earth and all its natural resources (both renewable and non renewable). In the face of current ecological and social degradation leading the earth into 6^th Mass Extinction Event, commemorating these brilliant minds as part of celebrating Earth Day cannot be overemphasized. Without these people, we wouldn’t have achieved biodiversity conservation, national and internal conservation mandates, environmental laws and treaty! These are their stories!

Happy Earth Day

Mohammed Ashraf (Founder)

49^th Earth Day : Commemorating Twelve Most Influential Figures

Gaylord Nelson

Gaylord Nelson, Politician and Environmentalist

No other name is more associated with Earth Day than that of Gaylord Nelson (1916-2005). After returning from World War II, Nelson began a career as a politician and environmental activist that was to last the rest of his life. As governor of Wisconsin, he created an Outdoor Recreation Acquisition Program that saved about one million acres of parkland. He was instrumental in the development of a national trails system (including the Appalachian Trail) and help pass the Wilderness Act, the Clean Air Act, and other landmark environmental legislation. He is perhaps best known as the founder of Earth Day, which has become an international celebration of all things environmental.

Theodore Roosevelt

Theodore Roosevelt, Politician and Conservationist

It might surprise some that a famed big-game hunter would make it onto a list of environmentalists, but Theodore Roosevelt (1858-1919) was one of the most active champions of wilderness preservation in history. As governor of New York, he outlawed the use of feathers as clothing adornment in order to prevent the slaughter of some birds. While president of the United States (1901-1909), Roosevelt set aside hundreds of millions of wilderness acres, actively pursued soil and water conservation, and created over 200 national forests, national monuments, national parks, and wildlife refuges.

Henry-David-Thoreau

Henry David Thoreau, Author and Activist

Henry David Thoreau (1817-1862) was one of America’s first philosopher-writer-activists, and he is still one of the most influential. In 1845, Thoreau — disillusioned with much of contemporary life — set out to live alone in a small house he built near the shore of Walden Pond in Massachusetts. The two years he spent living a life of utter simplicity was the inspiration for Walden, or A Life in the Woods, a meditation on life and nature that is considered a must-read for all environmentalists. Thoreau also wrote an influential political piece called Resistance to Civil Government (Civil Disobedience) that outlined the moral bankruptcy of overbearing governments.

Aldo Leopold

Aldo Leopold, Ecologist and Author

Aldo Leopold (1887-1948) is considered by some to be the godfather of wilderness conservation and of modern ecologists. After studying forestry at Yale University, he worked for the U.S. Forest Service. Though he was originally asked to kill bears, cougars and other predators on federal land because of protests from local ranchers, he later adopted a more holistic approach to wilderness management. His best-known book, A Sand County Almanac, remains one of the most eloquent pleas for the preservation of wilderness ever composed.

 

Edward Abbey

Edward Abbey, Author and Monkey-Wrencher

Edward Abbey (1927-1989) was one of America’s most dedicated — and most outrageous — environmentalists. Born in Pennsylvania, he is best known for his passionate defense of the deserts of America’s Southwest. After working for the National Park Service in what is now Arches National Park in Utah, Abbey wrote Desert Solitaire, one of the seminal works of the environmental movement. His later book, The Monkey Wrench Gang, gained notoriety as an inspiration for the radical environmental group Earth First!which has been accused of eco-sabotage by some, including many mainstream environmentalists.

Rachel Carson

Rachel Carson, Scientist and Author

Rachel Carson (1907-1964) is regarded by many as the founder of the modern environmental movement. Born in rural Pennsylvania, she went on to study biology at Johns Hopkins University and Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory. After working for the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service, Carson published The Sea Around Us and other books. Her most famous work, however, was 1962’s controversial Silent Spring, in which she described the devastating effect that pesticides were having on the environment. Though pilloried by chemical companies and others, Carson’s observations were proven correct, and pesticides like DDT were eventually banned.

John Muir

John Muir, Naturalist and Writer

John Muir (1838-1914) was moved to Wisconsin as a young boy. His lifelong passion for hiking began as a young man when he hiked to the Gulf of Mexico. Muir spent much of his adult life wandering in — and fighting to preserve — the wilderness of the western United States, especially California. His tireless efforts led to the creation of Yosemite National Park, Sequoia National Park and millions of other conservation areas. Muir was a profound influence on many leaders of his day, including Theodore Roosevelt. In 1892, Muir and others founded the Sierra Club “to make the mountains glad.”

 

Carl Segan

Carl Segan, Astronomer, Astrobiologist, Astrophysicist and Author

Carl Edward Sagan (November 9, 1934 – December 20, 1996) was an American astronomer, cosmologist, astrophysicist, astrobiologist, author, science popularizer, and science communicator in astronomy and other natural sciences. He is best known for his work as a science popularizer and communicator. Sagan published more than 600 scientific papers and articles and was author, co-author or editor of more than 20 books.[3] He wrote many popular science books, such as The Dragons of Eden, Broca’s Brain and Pale Blue Dot, and narrated and co-wrote the award-winning 1980 television series Cosmos: A Personal Voyage. Sagan advocated scientific skeptical inquiry and the scientific method, pioneered exobiology and promoted the Search for Extra-Terrestrial Intelligence (SETI). He spent most of his career as a professor of astronomy at Cornell University, where he directed the Laboratory for Planetary Studies.

 

E O Wilson

Edward Wilson, Father of Biodiversity

Edward Osborne Wilson (born June 10, 1929), usually cited as E. O. Wilson, is an American biologist, theorist, naturalist and author. His biological specialty is myrmecology, the study of ants, on which he has been called the world’s leading expert. Wilson has been called “the father of sociobiology” and “the father of biodiversity”,for his environmental advocacy, and his secular-humanist and deist ideas pertaining to religious and ethical matters. Among his greatest contributions to ecological theory is the theory of island biogeography, which he developed in collaboration with the mathematical ecologist Robert MacArthur, which was the foundation of the development of conservation area design, as well as the unified neutral theory of biodiversity of Stephen Hubbell.Wilson is the Pellegrino University Research Professor, Emeritus in Entomology for the Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology at Harvard University, a lecturer at Duke University and a Fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.

 

Robert MacArthur

Robert MacArthur, Father of Ecology and Ecological Mathematics

Robert Helmer MacArthur (April 7, 1930 – November 1, 1972) was American ecologist who made a major impact on many areas of community and population ecology. MacArthur received his Master’s degree in mathematics from Brown University in 1953.A student of G. Evelyn Hutchinson, MacArthur earned his Ph.D. from Yale University in 1957; his thesis was on the division of ecological niches among five warbler species in the conifer forests of Maine and Vermont. MacArthur was a professor at the University of Pennsylvania, 1958–65, and professor of biology at Princeton University, 1965-72. He played an important role in the development of niche partitioning, and with E.O. Wilson he co-authored The Theory of Island Biogeography (1967), a work which changed the field of biogeography, drove community ecology and led to the development of modern landscape ecology. His emphasis on hypothesis testing helped change ecology from a primarily descriptive field into an experimental field,and drove the development of theoretical ecology. At Princeton, MacArthur served as the general editor of the series Monographs in Population Biology, and helped to found the journal Theoretical Population Biology. He also wrote Geographical Ecology: Patterns in the Distribution of Species (1972). He was elected to the National Academy of Sciences in 1969. Robert MacArthur died of renal cancer in 1972 at age of 42.

 

George Schaller

George Schaller, Conservation Biologist and Author

George Beals Schaller (born 1933) is a American mammalogist, biologist, conservationist and author. Schaller is recognized by many as the world’s preeminent field biologist, studying wildlife throughout Africa, Asia and South America. He is vice president of Panthera Corporation and serves as chairman of their Cat Advisory Council. Schaller is also a senior conservationist at the Bronx Zoo-based Wildlife Conservation Society. Schaller received his Bachelor of Science degree from the University of Alaska in 1955, and went on to the University of Wisconsin–Madison to obtain his PhD in 1962. In 1959, when Schaller was only 26, he traveled to Central Africa to study and live with the mountain gorillas (Gorilla beringei beringei) of the Virunga Volcanoes. Little was known about the life of gorillas in the wild until the publication of The Mountain Gorilla: Ecology and Behavior in 1963, that first conveyed to the general public just how profoundly intelligent and gentle gorillas really are, contrary to then-common beliefs. Schaller also, in 1964, recounted this epic two-year study in The Year of the Gorilla, which also provides a broader historical perspective on the efforts to save one of humankind’s nearest relatives from the brink of extinction. The American zoologist Dian Fossey, with assistance from the National Geographic society followed Schaller’s ground-breaking field research on mountain gorillas in the Virungas. Schaller and Fossey were instrumental in dispelling the public perception of gorillas as brutes, by demonstrably establishing the deep compassion and social intelligence evident among gorillas, and how very closely their behavior parallels that of humans.

 

David Brower

David Brower, Environmental Activist

David Brower (1912-2000) has been associated with wilderness preservation since he began mountain climbing as a young man. Brower was appointed the Sierra Club’s first executive director in 1952; over the next 17 years, membership grew from 2,000 to 77,000, and they won many environmental victories. His confrontational style, however, got Brower fired from the Sierra Club — he nonetheless went on to found the groups Friends of the Earth, the Earth Island Institute and the League of Conservation Voters.

April 22 – Earth Day

Mommy Cheetah with her Litter of Kittens

Dear Species Ecology Members,

As you may know, April 22nd is Earth Day! This year, Species Ecology has decided to highlight the following issues:

1. Big Cat Conservation – Pledging your support before April 22nd will donate $1 to big cat conservation at no cost to you.

2. Action from World Leaders – Sign the petition to show world leaders that you want to protect our habitat.

3. Eco-friendly Coffee – Many coffee producers conduct business at great expense to local wildlife, especially birds. Learn how you can support bird-friendly coffee producers.

Please let us know what you think of this year’s highlighted issues, and share them with your friends, family, and colleagues!

https://www.panthera.org/stand-wild-cats

https://www.globaldealfornature.org/petition/en/

https://nationalzoo.si.edu/migratory-birds/about-bird-friendly-coffee

Towards Sustainable Ecological Future!

Ashraf (Founder)

Megan (Co-Founder)

Wildlife Ecology: Animal Population Sampling & Estimation

Wildlife Ecology: Animal Population Sampling & Estimation: Brief Introduction

Mohammed Ashraf

You can download the portable document format of this article by clicking PDF here.

Ecology is not the kind of science that takes people by storm hence I am not expecting that it is just what the doctor ordered. But we at Species Ecology are pretty ‘gung ho’ about the motion and rolled up our sleeves and buckled down to do our part to ensure science bound ecological sustainability find its niche in the face of anthropogenic development across the chessboard. I am not going to beat around the bush hence one of the main purposes of reaching out to people neatly rooted into the fact that collaborative and collective actions are fundamental to reinforce the conservation pillars in which wildlife science and ecology are basic ingredients. Therefore, I am at the crossroad reaching out potential academic scholars so that collectively we could go back to the drawing board and crank out rudiments of common language (mathematics) to preserve mosaic of heterogeneous pristine ecological units from Baluchistan in Pakistan to Yosemite in California and anything in between. I like to keep the ball rolling and I am twisting arms to get scholars on board depending on what variety of fresh food (ecology) and ingredients (mathematical tools) they can bring on the table.

Lot of ecological inquires can be modeled into finding priority action measures and to predict scenarios hence for example looking into fish population (denoted with ) which can be modeled into quadratic equation to predict future population size. Here I have modeled the fish population below and solved the equation to determine the time (in days) when fish population will reach 500. This is just an example of some of the works I am pretty ‘gung ho’ about.

Fish population model

Therefore for fish population to reach 500 it would require 88.5 days or roughly 12 weeks. Refer to the population model curve.

Its critically important to develop an algorithm so that we can generalize quadratic model and in this example I have used Python programming language to model the equation into square-root function for the purpose of fish population prediction.

Florida Panther-Everglade National Park

The other example I would like to draw attention to is sampling size and the determination of sampling size based on simple (or stratified) random sampling. Animal population estimation is function of two critical parameters. 1. Occupancy 2. Detectability. Here the probability of animal occupancy is one of the statistical factors that need to be taken into account before carrying out animal population survey. In other words, statistically valid survey design is at paramount importance. Generally speaking, at one given time, our chance to detect any animal depends on whether our sampling units are true representation of the population size.

For example, If I ought to find out the Florida panther (subspecies of mountain lion) population in any given area of 100 sq km, my primary objective is design a survey unit based on proportional and true representation of all the units. It simply means, if we conduct animal detection survey of roughly 2 sq km that I can cover in a day on foot, then I need to ensure that each 2 sq km I choose is a true representation or have the equal probability of selection among my fifty 2-sq-km panther survey unit (50 times 2 equates our total 100 sq km). Surely 100 sq km is a relatively big area for me to survey on my own but I still need to conduct the survey hence I could survey 40 sq km out of my total 100 sq km potential survey area to estimate the Florida panther population. Since my survey units are all 2 sq km each, hence 40 sq km translates to total 20 blocks which I would need to randomly select out of total 50 blocks or 100 sq km.

Random Sampling Matrix

Here I have used R programming language to write up a function that will allow me to randomly select 20 blocks out of 100 or any numbers of blocks depending on how many blocks you wish to include into your survey as random sample.I have presented the block matrix of 100 in which twenty 2-sq-km block are randomly selected. Blocks are highlighted for the purpose of clarity. Also note, this is not an algebraic matrix that you may often utilize to solve problems in linear algebra. This is just a block sample that some folks may simply present in a grid block as oppose to block matrix.

Florida Panther : Subspecies of Mountain Lion

These 20 blocks are true representation of my sampling survey area and if survey is carried out in these blocks, even if I can detect only few panther from my survey unit, the sampling size would still be true representation of the population size hence it would allow me to estimate the detection probability of panther population from the entire 100 sq.km. ecological unit. As an example, if I manage to detect only 3 panther out of my 40 sq km survey unit and my detection probability stands out 0.1, it then translates to undetected panther population size of 30 which in turn give me the total population size of 33 in that particular Everglade mangrove habitat.

This is just a short article providing some very brief understanding with regards to ecological study focusing animal population survey design and estimation techniques. The article deduced hard core mathematical rigor and modeling techniques to produce succinct easy-to-understand ecological piece without compromising the statistical rigor. The primary objective of this short essay is to publicize these rather mathematically challenging models in simplistic coherent format so that average people from non scientific background yet avid conservationist can able to digest the rudiment of population ecology and its conservation implications.

This draft is prepared in – the brainchild of Donalnd Knuth, developed by American Mathematical Society (AMS) and created by George Gratzar from University of Manitoba Department of Mathematics. I have also utilized both Python and R Programming Language to develop quadratic population model and for designing random sampling matrix. No commercial software under capitalistic market share is used in preparation of this draft. UNIX variant GNU-Debian Linux is used throughout as core to run all software packages.